Chances are Don Mattingly already has made a decision about his fate. Whether he was nudged toward retirement by the recent shakeup within the Yankees is a question only he can answer.

But the captain has been adrift since the season ended Oct. 8. Mattingly has been unreachable by telephone at home in Evansville, Ind., and apparently left Friday for vacation with his family. For those reasons, he has yet to confirm speculation that he will not be back with the Yankees.

There have been only hints, resulting in an educated guess that Mattingly indeed has called it quits - at least for the coming season. Both the Yankees and Mattingly's spokesman, Ray Schulte, said they will issue a joint statement today to clarify the intentions of the first baseman.

When pressed on the subject Friday, the supposed D-Day for Mattingly, Schulte toed the cloak-and-dagger line the Yankees love to follow. He seemed to know the answer but chose to defer until today.

General manager Bob Watson, the man with the most to gain by a quick solution, let slip at a Thursday news conference that he would hear from Mattingly the following afternoon. That appeared to be wishful thinking, however, because Watson later said that he did not speak with the Yankees captain and denied implying that the decision would come that day.

"I don't know what's going on," Watson said that evening from his Tampa hotel room.

The only thing certain was that a conversation did take place between owner George Steinbrenner and Mattingly's agent, Jim Krivacs, but neither one has been available for comment. And anyone who does know what transpired isn't saying.

Watson will meet in Tampa today with the rest of the Yankees' Florida-based brain trust, and the first-base situation is sure to be a popular topic. The GM seems eager to strike a deal, and the most intriguing possibilities include the Mariners' Tino Martinez and the Athletics' Mark McGwire. Neither player is a free agent, so the Yankees likely will part with some young pitching - except for the untouchable Andy Pettitte - in an effort to acquire Mattingly's replacement.

As for Mattingly, even retirement is uncertain. He may decide to return midway through next season, with a different team. One club official indicated the Yankees were willing to give the first baseman a one-year contract worth $2.5 million, an attractive offer for a 34-year-old player with back problems, but money does not appear to be the issue. By David Lennon. STAFF WRITER

Copyright 1995, Newsday Inc.